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Predictive Modeling Near- and Long-term Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Welcome Message

Preventive Medicine 2020 Online brought together leaders from medicine and public health to examine the most pressing issues in healthcare today, and how the Nation’s healthcare system can be transformed around prevention. This virtual meeting offered high-quality medical education programming, networking opportunities, and the recognition of the best in the profession.

The meeting was organized around critical topics including innovations in community health, public health policy, evidence and practice, health systems transformation and lifestyle medicine. Each meeting day was themed around two critical topics, with distinct sessions addressing shared themes in the practice of prevention.


Preventive Medicine 2020 Online focused on big, bold, upstream ideas and the people, places, and programs that are making them a reality today. Transformation is only possible with a clear vision, audacious goals, an innovative mindset, and the will to implement new policy and practice, honestly evaluate change, and engage stakeholders at every level.

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was widely seeded throughout the world during the latter months of 2019 and early 2020. The virus spreads easily and often without symptoms in the population. Modeling techniques have played a key and, at times, controversial role in the early months of the outbreak. This presentation will focus on current efforts to estimate undetected cases, assess and predict health impacts, forecast the near- and long-term trajectory of the outbreak, evaluate the potential impacts of transmission-blocking interventions, and present likely long-term outcomes of the pandemic. The discussion will also highlight modeling efforts which focus on protecting the vulnerable and the need for modeling tools that account for the possibility of entire populations being infected. These efforts anticipate that unless an effective vaccine is introduced, SARS-CoV-2 will enter sustained endemic transmission, spreading among the constantly replenished pool of susceptible births, acting similarly to varicella, rubella, rubeola, and other viral diseases of childhood in the pre-vaccine era. Finally, modeling techniques that can serve as early warnings to impending increases in cases will be discussed, to help guide efforts to ease or ramp-up mitigation measures.
Outcome Objectives
  • At the conclusion of this session, the participant will be able to describe how current modeling efforts estimate undetected cases of COVID-19 and project hospitalization impacts.
  • At the conclusion of this session, the participant will be able to describe the projected end states of COVID-19 infection with and without the introduction of an effective vaccine.
  • At the conclusion of this session, the participant will be able to understand how modeling efforts can forecast the trajectory of the outbreak and identify potential impacts of future policies.
  • At the conclusion of this session, the participant will be able to describe modeling efforts which contend measures to slow disease spread should focus on protecting vulnerable populations.
  • At the conclusion of this session, the participant will be able to identify modeling techniques which can project the impacts of various mitigation measures on the spread of disease, to guide efforts in easing restrictions
Dr. Lisa Miller, MD, MSPH

Dr. Elizabeth Carlton

Dr. Andrew Wiesen, MD, MPH
Availability: Retired
Cost: Non-Member: $45.00
Student/Resident Member: $35.00
ACPM Subscriber: $35.00
Member: $35.00
Credit Offered:
No Credit Offered

American College of Preventive Medicine
1200 First Street NE, Suite 315 - Washington, DC 20002
202-466-2044  ·

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